Geopolitics of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway: a cooperative game theory perspective

Authors

  • Chen Wei Researcher, Research Center for Central Asian Education and Humanities Exchange*, School of Foreign Languages, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China Author
  • Dilfuza Turaeva PhD candidate, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University, Shanghai, China Author
  • Wang Na Associate professor, School of Foreign Languages, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61841/

Keywords:

BRI, CKU railway, cooperative game theory, geopolitics, Shapley value

Abstract

The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway discussed for decades and encountered setbacks due to disagreements over financing, route alignment, and geopolitical concerns, has finally commenced its initial construction steps. Nevertheless, due to existing geopolitical tensions around Central Asia, the railway still faces risks way forward. The main objective of this paper is to consider possible approaches to the implementation of the cooperative game theory for the relationship between the major actors of the railway project and implication of the geopolitical factor on its future prospects. By applying to the cooperative game theory, we can analyze the strategic decisions of China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan in the context of the railway project, as well as the influence of external actors. This approach can provide a structured way to understand the complexities of the geopolitical dynamics at play and predict potential outcomes

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Bird, J., Lebrand, M., & Venables, A. J. (2020) “The belt and road initiative: Reshaping economic geography in Central Asia?” Journal of Development Economics, 144, 102441.

Hans P., (2015) “Game Theory”, Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-662-46950-7, December.

Khitakhunov A. (2024) “The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway: causes and consequences”, Eurasian research journal ERJ, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 41-54

MacKenzie Allen B., DaSilva Luiz A. (2006). “Game Theory for Wireless Engineers”, Springer Cham, pages 76.

Morrow, James D., (1957) – “Game theory for political scientists”, Princeton University Press.

Nash, J.F.Jr. (1950). “The Bargaining Problem”, Econometrica, 18: 155-162

Nash, J.F.Jr. (1953). “Two-Person Cooperative Games”, Econometrica, 21: 128-140

Parrachino, Irene and Dinar, Ariel and Patrone, Fioravante, “Cooperative Game Theory and its Application to Natural, Environmental, and Water Resource” Issues: 3. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4074, p.3.

Roth, A. E. (Ed.). (1988). “The Shapley Value: Essays in Honor of Lloyd S. Shapley”. Cambridge University Press.

Shapley L. (1953), “A Value for n-person Games”, in H. W. Kuhn and A. W. Tucker (eds), Contributions to the Theory of Game, II, Annals of Mathematical Studies, Vol 28. Princeton University Press pp. 307–317.

Von Neumann, J. and O. Morgenstern (1944), “Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton”, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Wu, J., Wu, S. (2025) “Fuzzy cooperative game analysis within the international railway freight coalition framework.” Sci Rep 15.

Ибрагимов У. Н., Тохиров М. М. (2019) “Формирование единого и внешне интегрированного транспортного пространства в Центральной Азии”, МИР ТРАНСПОРТА, том 17, № 4, С. 148–165

Ю.Кутбитдинов (2020), “Китайский вектор узбекской экономики”, Экономическое обозрение №2 (242).

Центр политико-правовых исследований “Железная дорога Китай – Кыргызстан – Узбекистан. Рациональный подход и избавление от иллюзий – залог успешности проекта”, https://investmentcouncil.kg/index.php/press-tsentr/analitika/item/720-analiticheskoe-issledovanie-tsppi-zheleznaya-doroga-kitaj-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan-ratsionalnyj-podkhod-i-izbavlenie-ot-illyuzij-zalog-uspeshnosti-proekta; 28.07.2019.

https://isrs.uz/ru/maqolalar/strategia-uzbekistana-po-vystraivaniu-bolsoj-transregionalnoj-konnektivnosti.

https://isrs.uz/ru/maqolalar/klucevye-prioritety-uzbekistana-po-vsestoronnemu-razvitiu-transportnyh-koridorov-v-centralnoj-azii.

https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2025/04/30/railway/

https://ia-centr.ru/experts/marsel-khamitov/ashimbaev-voyny-za-vodu-v-tsa-ne-budet-no-bryatsanie-oruzhiem-vozmozhno/

https://rtvi.com/news/zachem-kitaj-kyrgyzstan-i-uzbekistan-stroyat-novuyu-zheleznuyu-dorogu-bez-uchastiya-rossii/

https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2021/03/05/railway/

https://ia-centr.ru/experts/alibek-mukambaev/doroga-kitay-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan-ismenit-rasklad-sil-v-regione/

https://www.akchabar.kg/ru/news/Zheleznay-doroga-Kitay-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan/

ТЭО строительства ж/д Китай-Кыргызстан-Узбекистан. http://china-uz-friendship.com/?p=669

https://www.vb.kg/doc/430050_ekspert:_es_i_ca_sblizit_jeleznaia_doroga_kitay_kyrgyzstan_yzbekistan.htmhttps://www.rferl.org/a/qishloq-ovozi-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan-china-railway/28713485.html

http://epaper.stcn.com/paper/zqsb/html/2012-09/28/content_408467.htm

https://jamestown.org/program/controversial-railway-projects-in-kyrgyzstan-and-mongolia/

https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/china-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan-railway-back-to-life/

https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/09/06/two-new-railway-lines-could-transform-central-asia

https://www.orfonline.org/research/assessing-the-status-of-india-eurasia-connectivity-projects/

https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/03/china-is-finally-making-progress-on-the-china-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan-railway/

https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30989843

https://www.voanews.com/a/uzbeks-kyrgyz-see-railway-with-china-as-potential-economic-boost/6685906.html

https://jamestown.org/program/us-chinese-plans-for-rail-links-with-central-asia-triggering-railroad-war-and-reducing-russias-influence/

https://gfsis.org.ge/blog/view/1468

https://emerging-europe.com/news/future-of-china-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan-railway-remains-uncertain/

https://www.seetao.com/details/217762.html

https://thediplomat.com/2022/09/china-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan-move-railway-plans-forward-with-agreement-at-sco/

https://asiasociety.org/australia/rail-link-kyrgyzstan-and-uzbekistan-key-china-raising-central-asia-influence-and-skirting-russia

https://www.vsemirnyjbank.org/ru/news/press-release/2021/04/02/improving-transport-connectivity-in-central-asia-requires-a-coherent-approach.

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3371481/limited-hard-balancing-explaining-indias-counter-response-to-chinese-encircleme.

https://www.railway-technology.com/news/rvnl-forms-jv-kyrgyz-republic/?cf-view

https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/china-india-and-crossroads-21st-century-infrastructure-competition

http://en.kabar.kg/news/ebrd-to-allocate-usd-12-mln-to-kyrgyzstan-for-modernization-of-railway-infrastructure/

https://www.kt.kz/rus/authors_column/megaproekt_odin_poyas_-_odin_put_otmechaet_desyatiletie_1377954227.html

https://www.idcpc.gov.cn/ldt/202406/t20240611_164251.html

https://eng.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/p/49136.html - Belt and Road portal

https://market-insights.upply.com/en/china-eu-rail-freight-on-the-rise-again-in-2024

Downloads

Published

2025-08-14

Issue

Section

GEOPOLITICS AND REGIONAL SECURITY

How to Cite

Chen Wei, Turaeva , D. ., & Wang Na. (2025). Geopolitics of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway: a cooperative game theory perspective. CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS, 26(1), 84-101. https://doi.org/10.61841/

Plaudit

Similar Articles

1-10 of 222

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.