Kenan Allahverdiev, Ph.D.(Philos.), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Political Administration, Academy of State Administration under the President of Azerbaijan Republic (Baku, Azerbaijan).
THE CAUCASIAN PENTAGRAM: A CURSE OR A LUCKY CHANCE?
In this article the author identifies and analyzes the dynamics of five factors that most affect the development trends of the Caucasian region, the results of which may not only crop up in all sorts of contexts, the protracted conflicts in the Caucasus included, but may also change the geopolitical balance and military-political configuration of the region.
Keywords: The Caucasus, the Caucasian pentagram, globalizational, geopolitical, ethnopolitical, confessional, national-strategic.
Even the most superficial analysis of what political scientists have written about the Caucasus reveals several key narratives as starting points:
Geopolitically and geostrategically, the Caucasus is an extremely important region;
It can be described as a hub of the varied interests of the global and regional actors of international politics;
The role of numerous international mediators acting in different formats and combinations (real, declared, and potential) in settling the post-Soviet conflicts in the Caucasus is huge because:
(a) civilizationally—they prevent mutual extermination;
(b) preventively—they keep the conflicts frozen;
(c) constructively—they may encourage the conflicting sides to move closer or even push them into a semblance of peace.
It is not my task to assess these theses as realistic or mythologized. Depending on the political context, certain external and internal factors can be added to the above, viz. transformation trends of political regimes; peace initiatives; armed clashes (the Russian-Georgian war of August 2008 can serve as an example); or the threat of armed clashes (the notorious “Iranian threat”), etc.
These are short-term factors that may affect the Caucasian agenda; there are also fundamental, or long-term, factors responsible for its qualitative parameters: globalizational, geopolitical, ethnopolitical, confessional, and national-strategic.
I have written this article with the sole purpose of analyzing these five systemic factors of Caucasian realities, which I have called, with a great degree of conventionality, the Caucasian pentagram.