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THE TRANSCASPIAN AFTER 11 SEPTEMBER, 2001Constantine DMITRIEV
Mark EATON
Constantine Dmitriev, Ph.D. (Political Science), University of Western Ontario (Canada)
Mark Eaton, Ph.D. (Hist.), University of Western Ontario (Canada)
The republics of the South Caucasus and Central Asia have enjoyed fairly uneven media coverage since achieving independence in 1991. By virtue of possessing sizeable oil and gas reserves, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have attracted significant international attention. So did Georgia and Armenia, albeit for reasons related to ethnic conflict and civil war. The remaining three Central Asian republics received very little attention before 2001. However, the 11 September terrorist attacks on the United States put the greater Transcaspian region back on the international radar screen, given their proximity to Afghanistan, the participation of these republics in the anti-terrorist campaign, and a sustained commercial interest in the region’s vast energy resources.
The American-led anti-terrorist campaign in Afghanistan legitimizes, to a great extent, the trend toward developing regional security structures in the Transcaspian region. This process is not entirely new, but rather is an extension of long-term efforts on behalf of the Central Asian states and Russia to enhance regional security. The Transcaspian republics are becoming more eager to work together and with Russia to respond to common threats to regional security. Unfortunately, the growing U.S. military presence in a region that Russia has always considered vital to its national interests both simplifies and complicates bilateral relations between the two states. On the one hand, both countries share an interest in combating international terrorism, thus enhancing prospects for bilateral cooperation. Conversely, the increased American presence in the Transcaspian region has intensified Russian fears that its influence in the region could deteriorate further. However, as the international campaign against terrorism evolves, it is becoming clear that the prospects for bilateral cooperation far outweigh the barriers.
The impact of the 11 September attacks on the region is not yet fully felt. On the one hand, new anti-terrorist measures require additional expenditures to strengthen domestic security and border controls. Falling hydrocarbon prices also negatively affect local economies. The presence of American and other international anti-terrorist forces in Central Asia and additional aid packages promised by the current U.S. Administration, on the other hand, will result in increased Western investment, financial aid, and additional attention to the…………………
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