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CHAPTER THREE
THE CAUSES OF WATER DISPUTES IN THE SYR DARYA RIVER BASIN
The idea of a holistic approach to the environment advanced by Harold and Margaret Sprout claims that in order to understand the political behaviour of states on the international scene, it is not enough to explore geographical factors as geopolitical theories suppose. This means that together with physical features non-physical features should be taken into consideration; “no one variable occupies a pre eminent position.”94 Therefore, in order to address the problem of water disputes in Central Asia, this study will look at (i) physical milieu of the region and the basin. Then the study will consider (ii) competing needs and (iii) national interests of co-riparians. These three factors will be useful in illustrating the main reasons for the water disputes in the Syr Darya River basin.
3.1 Central Asia: General Overview
By Central Asia, the study generally refers to a region, which lies in the middle of the Eurasian continent and covers 5 ex-Republics of the former Soviet Union: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan (see map 2.1). This region has geopolitical boundaries with Russian Federation to the northwest, the north, and the northeast, with People’s Republic of China to the east, with Afghanistan to the south, and Islamic Republic of Iran to the southwest. The region is stretching for 4,077,000 square kilometres and accommodates more than 55 million of people.95
2.1 Central Asia
Source: Maps.com. Digital Maps. 2002. <http://www.maps.com> (January 11, 2002).
In terms of geography, the region is characterized by an extremely varied relief: in the east and the south are the Tien Shan and Pamir mountain ranges, covered with glaciers and snow; in the southeast there is the second largest crater lake in the world, the Issyk Kul, and the Fergana Valley; in the southwest and northwest lie the largest deserts in the world, the Kara-Kum and the Kyzyl-Kum deserts; in the west part there is the Caspian Sea, and in the central western part the Aral Sea is located.96
Central Asia is rich in natural resources. There are big reserves of coal, natural gas, mineral oil and freshwater resources. However, these resources are distributed unevenly within the region. While most of the energy resources and the arable land are located in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan; Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan possess majority of freshwater resources of the region.
2.2 Mineral Resources of Central Asia
Source: United Nations. Regional Environmental Report on the Aral Sea Basin.
For example, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have 44 % and 23 % of all regional natural gas deposits respectfully; the western parts of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan are also rich in oil; besides, there is a large number of coalfields situated to the west of Kazakhstan (see map 2.2).97 As for hydraulic potential of Central Asia, 81% of renewable surface water resources of the region falls within the territories of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Furthermore, the main rivers of the region, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, originate in mountain ranges these two countries (see map 2.3). 98
2.3 Water Resources of Central Asia
Source: Kristina Schneider. Water Resources and International Conflict: Game Theory. Power
Point Presentation. http://www.ce.utexas.edu> (January 11, 2002).
In spite of promising potentials such as rich natural resources and a tradition of friendly cooperation, the Central Asian countries are still far from achieving economic progress, political stability and social prosperity. The overall situation in the region is aggravated by political and economic competition, which for the last decade has assumed an intensified character. The spirit of this competition penetrated into main spheres of state interaction and set the countries at loggerheads on many subjects, including an issue of management of the two principle rivers of the region, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya
2.4 The Aral Sea Basin
Source: United Nations. Food and Agriculture Organization. General Summary on the Countries of the Former Soviet Union.
The reasons for this current discord on water resources are rooted in events of the early 1990s. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the creation of new sovereign states, a new international river basin, the Aral Sea basin, appeared in Central Asia. Two large rivers in Central Asia, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers see map 2.4), which flow into the Aral Sea and feed the national economies of the basin states, became internationally shared water-course systems.
Being located in the arid and semi-arid vegetation zones with poor precipitation and scarce ground water resources, the five independent states are extremely concerned with safe water supplies to meet the demands of their agricultural sectors and growing populations. Therefore, water has been and continues to be a vital factor for the economies as well as for the politics of the region.
The current situation in the region is developing in such a way that the differences of opinion among the states sharing waters of the Syr Darya River system are attracting more attention from the international community than the situation in the Amu Darya River basin. Taking into consideration the alarming point to which disagreements and tensions have reached, it would be worth focusing in this as well as in the next chapters of the study on water disputes between the co-riparians of the Syr Darya River basin.
3.2 The Syr Darya River Basin: Physical Milieu
The Syr Darya River basin is an elongated area, which is situated closer to the southern part of Central Asia. It makes up 99,458 km2 and stretches from the mountain ranges of Tien Shan in the southeast to the Aral Sea in the northwest.99 The basin covers 55% of all territory of Kyrgyzstan, includes the Fergana Valley and the Hunger Steppe in the eastern part of Uzbekistan, it passes the northern part of Tajikistan, and stretches further to the northwest of Kazakhstan (see map 2.5).
2.5 The Syr Darya River Basin
Source: United Nations. Food and Agriculture Organization. General Summary on the Countries of the Former Soviet Union.
Mountain ranges in the southeast, valleys and deserts in the southern part and plains along both flanks of the Syr Darya River characterize the watershed. The river is replenished during spring thaw by melting snow and glaciers in the southeast and flows in to the basin states draining land in the south and northwest.100 The River has a diversified hydraulic infrastructure constructed during the Soviet period, which was designed for water storage and flood control in the basin. The network includes dams, reservoirs and irrigation canals along the territories of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan (see table 2.1).
The degree of dependence on water in the basin varies from country to country, and is conditioned by the geographical location of each basin state. While, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are upstream states that possess abundant water resources, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are mainly downstream countries, which heavily depend on water resources flowing from the upstream states.
Table 2.1 Hydraulic Infrastructure of the Syr Darya Basin
Country Number of Main Reservoirs Total Capacity of Reservoirs (km3) Kyrgyzstan 9 22.30 Uzbekistan 21 5.00 Tajikistan 5 n/a Kazakhstan 1 5.70 Source: compiled by author from several websites of the Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations.
3.3 The Main Causes of the Disputes
A situation, taken place in the Syr Darya River basin, could serve as an example of how scarce water resources could affect interstate relationships. This situation also shows the water issue is able become one of the reasons of discord between states, which theoretically have more similarities than differences. Indeed, despite geographical proximity, similar cultural background and many other practical factors like common political boundaries or closely connected infrastructure etc., the basin states have failed to cooperate on the issue of shared water resources.
An overview of basin developments illustrates that disputes over the waters of the Syr Darya River basin flared up mainly because of a problem of equitable water use. This is because the existence of competing needs of the countries at different industrial levels and opposing interests of the basin states. The problem further falls into two categories: quantity and quality issues.
While one party in the disputes, Kyrgyzstan, is interested in increasing its water quotas for the production of hydroelectric power, another party, Uzbekistan, continues to insist on increased supplies for rising agricultural needs and a growing population. The third basin state, Kazakhstan is very concerned with both quantity and quality issues. However, it could be easily observed that the country is more preoccupied with the problem of quality of the fluvial waters since its population uses the waters of the basin for drinking purpose mainly.
3.3.1 The Problem of Equitable Water Use: the Issue of Quantity
Initially, the issue of equitable use of water resources was advanced by the uppermost riparian of the Syr Darya River, Kyrgyzstan. This country is interested in making alterations into the current water flow quotas, which it considers unfavourable (see table 2.2). The main interest of this upstream state is protection of its energy security. Taking into account that Kyrgyzstan is highly dependent upon energy resources supplies from its neighbours and easily vulnerable to any stoppage, it could be helpful to study the problem in terms of the energy sector of the country.
Table 2.2 Current Water Distribution in the Syr Darya River Basin
Country Water Flow Quota (million of km3) Kyrgyzstan 5.1 Uzbekistan 58.6 Tajikistan 12.0 Kazakhstan 10.9 Source: compiled by author from an article by Ryspek Apasov.
Due to its big water potential (see table 2.3) Kyrgyzstan during the Soviet period was assigned the role of a supplier of water for the irrigation needs of the Republics situated downstream the Syr Darya River. According to the National Plan of the USSR, from 1960 to 1970 a great number of reservoirs and hydrotechnical units were constructed and put into operation on the rivers of this upstream country. The facilities were intended for the development of the rice and cotton-growing industries of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan rather than for the production of electric power for domestic needs of Kyrgyzstan.101
Table 2.3 Renewable Surface Water Resources of the Syr Darya Basin
Country or Zone Total km3 per year Per cent of the Basin Kyrgyzstan 27.25 73.4 Uzbekistan 4.84 13.0 Tajikistan 0.40 1.1 South Kazakhstan 4.50 12.1 Source: compiled by author from several websites of the Food and Agriculture Organization, the United Nations.
As a result of water policy conducted by Moscow, neighbouring republics succeeded to expand irrigation areas by 400,000 hectares and to increase water supplies by 90%. Kyrgyzstan in turn received a different kind of compensation from the state budget of the Soviet Union for the damage caused. During that period in Kyrgyzstan thousands of hectares of fertile lands, many settlements and historical places were flooded and lost forever. All these years Kyrgyzstan was being compensated in energy resources, like coal, oil and gas, and money from the federal budget for the maintenance of hydrotechnical units and irrigation systems.102
With the disappearance of the single planning authority, “which was estimating profits, costs prices for each riparian, and was mitigating the conflict of interests…by redirecting energy and water resources throughout the region,”103 the resources redistribution system has been broke down. For Kyrgyzstan that process meant drastic drop in supplies of coal, oil and gas. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan introduced new rules to regulate relationships in the Syr Darya River basin. The two countries began selling energy resources at world market prices while getting free irrigation water from Kyrgyzstan.104
For the initial years of independence, this state of affairs remained unchanged. However, after several winter seasons of being cut off from the Uzbek gas-pipeline due to debt and irregular coal/oil supplies from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan could not be dependent upon the goodwill of its neighbours anymore. In June 1997 on Usubaliev’s105 initiative the Kyrgyz Parliament started to discuss the water issue and the new strategy towards downstream Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. As a result, a resolution ordering the collection of money for exported water was adopted.106
One of the key and important points of the resolution was a plan to allocate the money to be collected from the downstream neighbours for the rehabilitation and the maintenance of water facilities.107 The reluctance of the basin states to share the cost of maintenance and operation of the hydraulic facilities, situated within the territories of Kyrgyzstan but used by all the basin states, served as one of the reasons why Kyrgyzstan decided to take the step. However, until recently any appeals and/or requests from the Kyrgyz side to economically strong Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to share the costs did not yield results and were ignored or rejected.108
Under the conditions mentioned above and in order to avoid any energy dependency from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan started to accumulate water from the northern tributary of the Syr Darya River, the Naryn River, in the Toktogul reservoir (see map 2.6) in summer and to produce electric power in winter for both domestic and export needs.109 For the period of the last 10 years Kyrgyzstan has increased electricity production from 9.2 billion kW per hour in 1980 to 11.6 billion kW per hour in 1998; more than 85% of output was generated by hydropower.110
It would be natural enough to expect that the positions of the downstream co-riparians, in particular, Uzbekistan, could be diametrically opposed to the position of official Bishkek. The country has refused to consider the waters of the Syr Darya River as a commodity, which has real value, arguing that changes, proposed by Kyrgyzstan, contradict the main provisions of international water law. As for the question of the water quotas, the Uzbek side keeps insisting on the water distribution plan of the Soviet era since any alterations would have undesirable repercussions for both the agricultural sector and huge population of the country.
2.6 The Toktogul Reservoir
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations.
The construction of the large-scale hydraulic network upstream the Syr Darya River took place in the 1960s and the 1970s, and brought a significant expansion of arable land in the downstream areas of the basin. In 1960 the total irrigated area covered 2 million hectares out of 8,160 million hectares of arable land available in the basin. In two decades irrigated territories were expanded twofold and made up 3,880 million hectares.111 As recent statistics demonstrate, by the middle of the 1990s the total area of irrigated territories even exceeded 1960 figures (see table 2.4).112
Table 2.4 Total Irrigated Area in the Syr Darya River Basin
Year Country Total Irrigated Area (ha) Increase for the Period of 1983-1994 (%) 1994 Kyrgyzstan 1 077 100 + 7.4 1994 Uzbekistan 4 280 600 + 8.7 1994 Tajikistan 719 200 + 10.0 1994 Kazakhstan 3 556 400 + 15.5 Source: compiled by author from several websites of the Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations.
Striving for economic development Uzbekistan, like other basin states, tends to rely heavily upon its agricultural sector. Since the majority of the arable land is concentrated in the Fergana Valley of Uzbekistan, water resources in that part of the basin are exploited more intensively. The degree of exploitation is aggravated by the fact that the agricultural sector of Uzbekistan is mainly rice and cotton-oriented. These types of crops are considered as cash crops, which bring in big revenue to the state budget. However, there is another side to the cotton/rice industry as it requires stable and substantial water supplies as well as manpower.
Because the population of the country prefers to live near the cultivated land area of the Fergana Valley, agricultural expansion has had an impact not only on the environment of this part of the basin, but also on its inhabitants. Thus, for example, over 10 years the population of Uzbekistan increased from 20.5 million in 1990 to 24.8 million in 2000 (see table 2.5). The annual population growth rate in the country is the highest among the basin states and reached 1.7%. The population serves as an additional factor that urges Uzbekistan to take an irreconcilable position and to be intractable in the negotiation processes on water resources of the Syr Darya River basin. The country tries to ensure its food security.
Table 2.5 Population of the Syr Darya River Basin
Source: compiled by author from the Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries by Asian Development Bank.
Given the water shortage in Central Asia at large and in the basin in particular, Uzbekistan drives itself into dependency upon water supplies from the upstream riparians by cultivating cash crops. However, being “the more powerful [actor] in terms of population, economy resources and military might,”113 the country expresses a commanding attitude towards upstream Kyrgyzstan. It conducts hard-line tactics in response to any intention of weaker Kyrgyzstan to limit water withdrawals for the irrigation needs of the downstream users.
Kazakhstan in turn is also concerned by the issue of quantity, since the problem is “tied into the greater question of the restoration of the Aral Sea. A certain amount of [water] of the Syr Darya needs to flow into the Sea in order to stabilise its volume and area to protect the area inhabitants and the environment from further harm.”114
Finally, the second upstream state of the Syr Darya River basin, Tajikistan, has similar demands in terms of water supplies from Kyrgyzstan, however, the total area allocated for cotton is 100 times less than in Uzbekistan. Besides, the country possesses another source of freshwater resources, the Amu Darya River, which is sufficient for the domestic needs of Tajikistan. Nevertheless, the country is also trying to pursue its interests in negotiations over the water issue. However, since it has been involved in civil war during the last decade, its participation in regional negotiations over the water resources of the Syr Darya River basin is still evaluated as minor. 115
3.3.2 The Problem of Equitable Water Use: the Issue of Quality
Against a background of high population density of people and huge human resources of Uzbekistan, the annual growth rate of the population of the neighbouring Kazakhstan is negative due to migration process to other countries and demographic drops. During the past decade the total population of the country decreased from 16.4 million to 14.9 million (see table 2.4). However, like neighbouring Uzbekistan, water-poor Kazakhstan also actively participates in the water issue because the country considers the quality of the waters flowing from upstream of the river as a matter of national security. Such concern is determined by two important factors: Kazakhstan is the last in the chain of water consumers of the Syr Darya River, and the fluvial waters of the Syr Darya River arrive to Kazakhstan “directly from the pesticide-treated [rice] and cotton fields of Uzbekistan with little treatment.”116
3.4 Conclusion
Impelled by an aspiration for economic development and prosperity the basin states are inclined to act unilaterally in order to gain momentary advantages and to maximize their profits. Such behaviour leads to intense economic competition and enduring political tension in the region in the short term and losses for all parties involved in the long run. Indeed, nowadays the states have a volatile issue on their political agenda, which is recognized by the international community as very tense and unpredictable: the disputes over the waters of the Syr Darya River.
Abandoning the energy-water resource distribution system, the basin states are reaping ‘the fruits’ of their shortsightedness: the needs and national interests of the co-riparians are in conflict with each other. While Kyrgyzstan needs its water resources to provide its population with heat and electricity in winter, agricultural sectors of the national economies of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan suffer from sharp water deficits in summer the seasons.
The problem is that each riparian state tends to develop water resources of the Syr Darya River individually and unrestrictedly, without taking into account the water utilization plans of co-riparians.117 As a result, in spite of post-Soviet “rhetoric in support of coordinated water management,” the relationships between the upstream and downstream users of the Syr Darya River basin is characterized by political tension, discord and lack of mutual understanding rather than by willingness to cooperate on a just and wise base.
94 Miriam Lowi. Water and Power: The Politics of a Scarce Resource in the Jordan River Basin. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993, p. 19.
95 Egor Ivanov. “Istochnik Vsego Zhivogo.” [A Source for Every Living Thing]. Slovo Kyrgyzstana, October 2001.
96 United Nations. Food and Agriculture Organization. The Land and Water Development Division. AQUASTAT. General Summary on the Countries of the Former Soviet Union. <http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/aglw/aquastat/regions/fussr/index.htm> (April 23, 2002).
97 Egor Ivanov. “Istochnik Vsego Zhivogo.” [A Source for Every Living Thing]. Slovo Kyrgyzstana, October 2001.
98 United Nations. Food and Agriculture Organization. The Land and Water Development Division. AQUASTAT. General Summary on the Countries of the Former Soviet Union. <http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/aglw/aquastat/regions/fussr/index.htm> (April 23, 2002).
99 United Nations. Environmental Performance Reviews: Kyrgyzstan. New York: United Nations (2000): 69.
100 Stefan Klötzli. Center for Security Studies and Conflict Research. Environment and Conflicts Project, Occasional Paper no. 11. Chapter 2. The Water and Soil Crisis in Central Asia – a Source for Future Conflicts? 61 pages. <http://www.fsk.ethz.ch/fsk/encop/11/en11-con.htm> (January 13, 2002).
101 Turdakun Usubaliev. “Fakty i Tolko Fakty.” [Nothing but the Facts]. Slovo Kyrgyzstana, October 2001, p. 5.
102 Turdakun Usubaliev. “Fakty i Tolko Fakty.” [Nothing but the Facts]. Slovo Kyrgyzstana,] October 2001, p. 5.
103 Keely Lange. “Energy and Environmental Security in Central Asia: the Syr Darya.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, February 20, 2001, 4 pages. <http://www.csis.org/ruseura/cs010220lange.htm> (January 13, 2002).
104 Turdakun Usubaliev, p. 5.
105 Turdakun Usubaliev is the former 1st secretary of the Kyrgyz Communist Party and ex-leader of the Kyrgyz ASSR from 1961-1985, the current Deputy of the Kyrgyz Parliament.
106 Ryspek Apasov. “Integratsiya ili Ekonomicheskii Natsionalizm.” [Integration or Economic Nationalism]. Kyrgyzstan Development Gateway, 2001, 17 pages. <http://rus.gateway.kg/vodn> (January 13, 2002).
107 Ryspek Apasov.
108 Ryspek Apasov.
109 Sergei Tatur. “Pyatero u Dvuh Istochnikov.” [The Five Near Two Sources]. Slovo Kyrgyzstana, April, 1999, p. 8.
110 World Bank. 2001 World Development Indicators. <http://www.worldbank.org/data/> (January 22, 2002).
111 Turdakun Usubaliev. “Fakty i Tolko Fakty.” [Nothing but the Facts]. Slovo Kyrgyzstana, October 2001, p. 5.
112 Turdakun Usubaliev, p. 5.
113 Elisa Chait. International Water Resources Association. Water Politics of Syr Darya Basin, Central Asia: Question of State Interests. 7 pages. Online Database. Available. <http://www.iwra.siu.edu/pdf/Chait.pdf> (January 14, 2002).
114 Elisa Chait. International Water Resources Association. Water Politics of Syr Darya Basin, Central Asia: Question of State Interests. 7 pages. <http://www.iwra.siu.edu/pdf/Chait.pdf> (January 14, 2002).
115 Elisa Chait.
116 Elisa Chait. International Water Resources Association. Water Politics of Syr Darya Basin, Central Asia: Question of State Interests. 7 pages. <http://www.iwra.siu.edu/pdf/Chait.pdf> (January 14, 2002).
117 Elisa Chait. “Water Politics of Syr Darya Basin, Central Asia: Question of State Interests.” 7 pages. Online Database. Available. <http://www.iwra.siu.edu/pdf/Chait.pdf> (January 14, 2002).
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