International Conference

«Conflicts in the Caucasus: History, the Present and Prospects for Resolution»

Baku (Azerbaijan) 22-23 October, 2012 and Tbilisi (Georgia) 25-26 October, 2012

---

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

Rashid ABDULLO

---

Rashid Abdullo, Independent political scientist (Dushanbe, Tajikistan)

---

1

The content and orientation of the country’s foreign policy and its economic relations with other countries of the world were defined by the need to successfully build Tajikistan’s post-Soviet statehood and create prerequisites ensuring an upswing in the economy. These tasks had to be carried out in an atmosphere of intensified rivalry between Russia and the U.S. in Central Asia, and against the background of China’s and Iran’s growing interest in the region, which are striving to realize their goals in Central Asia as a whole and in Tajikistan in particular. The Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan and the events in Andijan had a significant impact on the development of the political situation in the region and consequently on official Dushanbe’s foreign policy moves.

Of course, the elections to the Majlisi Oli (the parliament), as well as the transfer of the entire state border with Afghanistan to the republic’s jurisdiction had an impact on how these tasks were carried out.

The main feature of the 2005 elections was that for the first time in Tajikistan’s post-Soviet history, deputies were being elected to a parliament already established in form and composition. What is more, for the first time they were to be a routine procedure organized under conditions not aggravated by an emergency. It was very important for the republic that the international community positively assessed the election campaign, the elections themselves, and their results. In order to reach the set goal, cooperation was established with CIS, U.N., and OSCE structures. For example, on 24 January, CIS Executive Secretary Vladimir Rushailo arrived in Dushanbe. The next day, he and the first 13 of the 70 Commonwealth observers who arrived with him opened their mission’s office in the republic’s capital. And on 28 January, the OSCE also opened its mission of observers engaged in monitoring the preparations for and course of the elections. The U.N. allotted approximately $250,000 through its structures in Tajikistan to prepare for the upcoming voting.

As expected, the presidential People’s Democratic Party sustained a victory at the election to the lower house of parliament. The Communist Party and Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan succeeded in obtaining seats for their representatives in parliament. The CIS observers found that the preparations and holding of the elections complied with the necessary standards. The OSCE mission of observers was of a diametrically opposite opinion.

But the U.S.’s assessment had a greater influence on the ultimate legitimacy of the elections. On 28 February, the embassy of this country put out a press release which said that the elections should be evaluated as part of the positive process of creating prerequisites for the further development of democracy in Tajikistan. And on 3 March, in an interview with the newspaper Azia plius, United States Ambassador to the republic Richard Hoagland said that the elections were a very important step forward, designating success at the very first level. Rome was not built in one day, he said, that is, building democracy is a long process, and one or two elections are not enough to create democracy… Both the embassy’s press release and the ambassador’s statement showed the White House’s unequivocal support of the elections results. In this way, the rational policy of the country’s leadership, which also took into account the realities of Tajikistan and the interests of its Russian and Western partners, including ideological, allowed it to achieve the result both it and the republic needed in this issue.

As for Tajikistan gaining jurisdiction over the state border with Afghanistan, it was important for official Dushanbe to complete the procedure as soon as possible, without complicating relations with Russia in the process. The set task was carried out, first, by transferring the border to the control of the Tajik border guards, and second, by ensuring participation of the Russian side in the protection of the state boundaries by creating an institution of RF advisors in the Tajik border troops, training the republic’s citizens in specialized Russian learning establishments, and developing cooperation of the corresponding structures within the framework of the CIS.

Transfer of control over the Tajik-Afghan borders began as early as December 2004 in the eastern-most part of the border—its Khorog section. On 16 February, transfer of the Moscow section to the control of the Tajik border guards began, and on 22 May of the Panj section of the border with Afghanistan. On 14 June, actual transfer of the border to the jurisdiction of Tajikistan was successfully completed. And on 13 July, a ceremony was held to raise the Tajikistan flag in the western-most, Panj, section of the border with Afghanistan. On 19 October, with the participation of Head of the Russian Federation Border Service Vladimir Pronichev, an official ceremony was held to transfer the entire Tajik border with Afghanistan to the jurisdiction of Tajikistan’s border guards. The same day, the 54th session of the Council of CIS States Border Service Commanders was held in Dushanbe. With respect to the changes that occurred on the Tajik-Afghan border, Vladimir Pronichev noted that cooperation of the CIS countries must be intensified in ensuring both the safety of this border, and the safety of all the Commonwealth’s southern borders.

When the Russian border guards began to leave, official Dushanbe asked the international community for financial and material-technical support of its efforts aimed at preventing a drop in the level and quality of defense of these borders. On 19 January, the first meeting of the Paris Pact was held in the republic’s capital. This is an international structure founded in 2003 at the G-8 summit in Paris with the aim of closing the channels for smuggling Afghani drugs. The members of the Pact are 55 countries, prestigious international organizations (the U.N., IMO, etc.), and financial institutions (the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, etc.). The participants in the meeting discussed the possibility of assisting Tajikistan to protect its borders with Afghanistan. In particular, emphasis was placed on the need for increasing technical assistance to the republic’s border troops immediately and for rendering assistance in training their qualified personnel in the near future. It was also noted that both of these tasks should be carried out within the framework of the bilateral and multilateral relations of the Pact’s member countries.

On 16 February, a European Commission delegation, which arrived in Tajikistan, stated that within the framework of the EU program on border management and the struggle against drug trafficking, work will begin to determine efficient measures aimed at strengthening the border. In addition, the delegation reported that cooperation is already being established to create learning centers, train border guards, ensure corresponding control at airports, carry out legal and institutional reforms necessary for modernizing the border protection system, and so on.

These and several other questions were discussed at the First International Conference of Donors held on 16 February. The Tajik side stated that the republic’s border service needed time and resources in order to develop a corresponding infrastructure, ensure technical equipping of the border, carry out reforms, train personnel, and so on. (The latter was assessed at $110 million.)

On 7 September, the country’s president, Emomali Rakhmonov, received E.U. Special Representative for Central Asia Jan Kubish, who said that the European Union was willing to assist Tajikistan in reinforcing the border with Afghanistan. And on 27 September, the Second International Conference of Donors opened in Dushanbe. Its participants discussed questions relating to the drawing up of a Partnership Agreement between the donor countries and the republic’s government and to determining the amount of aid needed to protect the border until 2007. A sum of approximately $30 million was decided on. This money is to be used to modernize existing and create new frontier posts along the entire boundary with Afghanistan.

2

When carrying out tasks to create prerequisites for promoting an upswing in the economy, the leadership’s efforts were aimed primarily at implementing large projects in power engineering (the country occupies second place in the CIS in terms of hydropower resources).

With the help of Moscow and Tehran, Bishkek resolved the problems relating to completion of the Sangtuda and Rogun hydropower plants, which began being built in Soviet times. The republic’s leadership was initially interested in cooperating with the Russian Federation. But the conditions proposed by Russia, particularly regarding the Sangtuda Hydropower Plant, did not satisfy Tajikistan. In September 2004, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami offered the republic $250 million (2.5-fold more than Russia) for building this hydropower plant. During his official visit to Dushanbe in October 2005, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Tajikistan almost 2 billion dollars to complete construction of both hydropower plants, as well as to modernize an active Tajik aluminum plant and build a new similar production unit.

The republic’s leadership accepted Russia’s offer, but did not want to reject the Iranian alternative. First, Tehran was offering cash, and what is particularly important, its offer was dictated by Iran’s national interests. Second, Tajikistan’s experience with Russia in building relations indicated that Russia would only undertake something practical and positive with respect to Tajikistan when real competition to its interests appeared. And in this case, Dushanbe views Tehran as a competent financial partner able to compete with Moscow and in so doing prompt it to actually carry out its own proposals.

As a result of corresponding foreign political moves by Tajikistan’s leadership, the idea came about to build two separate Sangtuda hydropower plants. This idea was discussed at the meeting held in Dushanbe on 12 January between Tajik Energy Minister Jurabek Nurmukhammadov, Iranian Energy Minister Habibollah Bitaraf, and Head of Russia’s RAO Unified Energy Systems Anatoli Chubais. The sides signed three documents, in compliance with which the Russian side was obliged to invest funds in the construction of Sangtuda-1 Hydropower Plant, costing $400-500 million, and Iran in the construction of Sangtuda-2 Hydropower Plant, costing $220 million.

On the Russian side, things stood as follows. On 15 April, Anatoli Chubais participated in the official ceremony to restart construction of Sangtuda-1 Hydropower Plant. After the meeting with Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov, he told journalists that the last (fourth) block of the hydropower plant would go into operation on 19 April, 2009.

On 28 June, a regular meeting of the Tajik-Russian Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation was held in Dushanbe. The sides, headed by Tajik Prime Minister Akil Akilov and Head of Russia’s Emergencies Ministry Sergei Shoigu, discussed (among other things) the participation of Russian companies in building Sangtuda-1 Hydropower Plant and the Rogun Hydropower Plant. In this respect, Sergei Shoigu expressed the concerns of Russia’s potential investors about investing funds in Tajikistan’s economic projects, although they still have a desire to work on this market.

On 8 September, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and head of the RusAl Company Oleg Deripaska discussed plans for joint work to restart construction of the Rogun Hydropower Plant. On 26 September, with the participation of the head of Tajikistan, Emomali Rakhmonov, and Russian Vice Premier Viktor Khristenko, an official ceremony for reviving construction of the plant was held in Rogun.

On 6 October, talks were held in the Kremlin between Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and Russian President Vladimir Putin. They discussed a broad range of questions relating to the development of bilateral relations. Emomali Rakhmonov placed special emphasis on problems relating to the implementation of strategic economic projects, under which agreements were reached during meetings of the heads of these states one year earlier in Dushanbe.

On 14 December, Chairman of the RF State Duma Boris Gryzlov paid a two-day visit to the republic. After his meeting with Emomali Rakhmonov, he told journalists that Tajikistan was a country in which funds could be invested. These words were in response to the opposite statement made by Sergei Shoigu on 28 June.

The Tajik side was just as active in the Iranian vector. For example, on 31 May, Emomali Rakhmonov and Iranian Deputy Energy Minister Reza Ardakanian discussed the further development of cooperation in power engineering. Then on 8-11 June, Tajik Energy Minister Jurabek Nurmukhammadov discussed questions with his Iranian colleague Habibollah Bitaraf in Tehran relating to implementation of the Sangtuda-2 project. The sides signed a Memorandum on Mutual Understanding. In particular, Iran confirmed that it would allot $220 million dollars in credit ($180 million) for ten years at a 5% interest rate for implementing the project.

On 15 June, Emomali Rakhmonov held talks with manager of Iran’s Central Bank Ebrahim Sheibani, who confirmed his willingness to invest in the Sangtuda-2 project. And on 13 July, a session of the Tajik-Iranian Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation was held in Dushanbe. During its work, questions were also discussed regarding implementation of the Sangtuda-2 project. In particular, cochairman of the commission, Iranian representative M. Shariatmadari, confirmed that his country would grant a loan of $180 million for building Sangtuda-2 Hydropower Plant.

During his visit to Iran on 24-30 December, Chairman of the Tajik Lower House of Parliament Saidullo Khairulloev met with his Iranian colleague Guliam Ali Khaddad-Adel, new Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the country’s foreign minister, Manuchehr Muttaki. During these meetings, official Tehran’s desire to further develop economic cooperation, particularly in power engineering, was confirmed.

In 2005, President Emomali Rakhmonov participated in several international forums, during which he deliberately lobbied important economic projects for Tajikistan. For example, on 22-23 April, the head of Tajikistan participated in the Asian-African summit held in Jakarta, where he met with Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref and discussed with him Iran’s participation in building Sangtuda-2 Hydropower Plant and the Anzob Tunnel. Emomali Rakhmonov discussed trade development and the prospects for exporting electric power from Tajikistan to Pakistan with his Pakistani colleague Pervez Musharraf.

On 22-25 March, President Emomali Rakhmonov paid an official visit to South Korea, where he discussed the development of bilateral trade and economic cooperation, particularly in power engineering, with its president, and also participated in an international economic forum.

On 26 May, Tajikistan’s energy minister participated in a session of the CIS Energy Council, at which the prospects and strategy for developing cooperation in this sphere until 2020 were discussed.

On 16-17 June, an international banking conference was held in Dushanbe. In his introduction, the Tajik president emphasized that the republic needs foreign investments in the national economy. Along with this, he announced that the country’s government is removing all restrictions on the activity of foreign banks in Tajikistan. The head of EBRD, who participated in the forum, held separate talks with the head of state and Prime Minister Akil Akilov.

On 21 June, Emomali Rakhmonov visited Moscow, where he participated in the EurAsEC summit. What is more, during his meeting with Vladimir Putin, he discussed the implementation of earlier agreements, including in energy projects. When speaking at the summit, Emomali Rakhmonov called the construction of the Sangtuda hydropower plants with Russian and Iranian investments a good example of cooperation.

When speaking at the U.N. summit in New York on 14 September, Emomali Rakhmonov called on international donors to double aid to his republic and create a mechanism which would help to alleviate the debt burden of such countries as Tajikistan. He suggested using a so-called “writing off debts in exchange for sustainable development” mechanism for his republic.

On 27 September, the CIS prime ministers gathered in Dushanbe. When he met with them, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov called for intensification of economic relations among the Commonwealth countries in the bilateral and multilateral formats. At the same time, on 27 September, a session of the EurAsEC Intergovernmental Council was held in Dushanbe. Its participants signed agreements on a procedure for creating a common oil and gas market, protecting investments, and more, and approved the Commonwealth’s budget for 2006.

On 10 October, experts of the SCO countries met in Dushanbe to discuss cooperation in the economy, trade, and banking. And on 11-12 October, the ministers of economics of these countries discussed a range of questions relating to the development of trade and economic ties. This discussion was largely motivated by the fact that China allotted $900 million to the Central Asian countries for resolving their economic problems. In particular, Tajikistan presented a list of facilities in need of rehabilitation.

On 7-8 December, Emomali Rakhmonov participated in the Third (Special) Summit of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) held in Mecca. In his speech, he called on the OIC countries to invest in the republic’s energy projects. He held unofficial bilateral talks, mainly on economic topics with Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, King of Bahrain Sheikh Hamad bin Isa, and President of the Islamic Bank of Development Ahmed Muhammad Ali. The new Iranian president emphasized the succession of his country’s policy in rendering assistance to implementing the planned economic projects in Tajikistan.

On 10 December, Emomali Rakhmonov met with the representatives of international financial institutions—the World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Islamic Development Bank (IDB), as well as with the heads of the largest companies of Russia, the U.S., and other countries—Oleg Deripaska (RusAl), Anatoli Kolesnichenko (deputy head of Russia’s RAO UES), John Woodham (Nur Energoservis), and others, which are directly involved in implementing Tajikistan’s strategy of socioeconomic development. The meeting was devoted to the building of hydropower plants and power transmission lines in Tajikistan.

3

Of course, official Dushanbe also paid special attention to problems of the country’s security. The events in Kyrgyzstan and Andijan, as well as their consequences, have given Tajikistan strong motivation for developing cooperation with other countries on security issues, both in the general political, and in more specialized aspects. Two vectors of this development were designated: with CIS countries and China, on the one hand, and with Western states, on the other.

On 2-6 April, command-post exercises “Rubezh-2005” were held in Tajikistan with the participation of subunits of the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) member states. They took place almost immediately following the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan, which made the problem of maintaining stability in the region more urgent. Against the background of these events and the exercises carried out, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and Tajik Defense Minister Sherali Khairulloev met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov. The head of state also met with CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordiuzha. The main topic of these meetings were issues relating to maintaining regional security in light of the tempestuously developing political events in Central Asia as a whole, and in Kyrgyzstan in particular. The sides agreed on the need to create conditions for the efficient functioning of Russia’s military base (No. 4) in Tajikistan. And at the meeting held on 6 April in Sochi, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the problem of ensuring security in Central Asia in light of the Kyrgyz events.

Between 19 and 23 April, the republic’s Defense Minister Sherali Khairulloev paid a visit to Iran, where he held talks with his colleague Admiral Ali Shamkhani and Iranian President Said Mohammad Khatami. The sides signed a Memorandum on the Development of Bilateral Relations in the Military Sphere.

On 24 June, a session of the Council of Defense Ministers of the CIS countries was held in Dushanbe. It took place after the events in Andijan and against the background of an abrupt deterioration in relations between Uzbekistan and the United States and West European countries, which naturally could not help but have a detrimental effect on the discussions held. In his speech, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov expressed a desire to double the quota of Tajik cadets and students at Russian military academies.

On 5 July, Emomali Rakhmonov took part in the SCO summit in Astana. The events in Kyrgyzstan and Andijan made a very significant imprint on the stance of its participants, in particular regarding the further presence of American military bases in Central Asia.

On 21 July, Emomali Rakhmonov held talks in Dushanbe with Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi, during which they discussed the rehabilitation and construction of roads in the republic, as well as the modernization and development of its telecommunication network. It is obvious that these projects have not only an economic aspect. It should be noted that due to the U.S. military presence in the region, particularly after the events in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, the Chinese leadership began intensifying its military-political and economic contacts with the Central Asian countries, justifiably believing that an active policy in this vector is a very important condition for ensuring China’s own security. What is more, Tajik Defense Minister Sherali Khairulloev, who came to the PRC as an observer of the joint Chinese-Russian exercises, met on 23 August with his Chinese colleague Cao Gangchuan and discussed the further development of bilateral cooperation with him. And on 13 September, General Cao Gangchuan made a return visit to Tajikistan, where he stated that the purpose of his visit was to discuss ways to promote further development of bilateral military cooperation. He also said that China intended to increase its military-technical aid to Tajikistan. The PRC defense minister also met with Chairman of the Tajik Upper House of Parliament Makhmadsaid Ubaidulloev and Prime Minister Akil Akilov.

The security of any Central Asian state largely depends on the nature of its relations with the U.S. So the republics of the region have always tried to maintain good relations with Washington. But the events in Kyrgyzstan and in Uzbek Andijan, as well as the attempts by the United States and West European countries to put severe pressure on official Tashkent have worsened these relations. But it turned out that the U.S. and other Western countries were more interested than the Central Asian countries themselves in improving bi- and multilateral relations. For example, officials from the U.S. and other Western countries have been making frequent visits to the republics of the regions, including to Tajikistan. Their main purpose was to change the situation, which was not developing in their favor. In particular, on 15 April, Commander of Combined Forces Command in Afghanistan Lieutenant General David Barno visited Tajikistan. Theoretically his talks with Emomali Rakhmonov were on the security problems in the region, but in fact the general was most likely trying to sound out official Dushanbe’s attitude toward Washington.

After the U.S.’s position in the region was given a severe jolt, the Americans were asked at the SCO summit to set deadlines for the presence of their bases in Central Asia, with respect to which the Uzbekistan leadership raised the question of curtailing the activity of the U.S. base in Khanabad. On 26 July, U.S. Defense Minister Donald Rumsfeld paid a one-day visit to Tajikistan. He expressed his gratitude to the republic’s leadership for cooperating with the U.S. in the military sphere and promised to increase assistance in fighting terrorism, drug trafficking, and so one. Then, on 24 August, General John Abizaid, Commander of the U.S. Central Command, visited Dushanbe to discuss bilateral cooperation in the economy, politics, and defense with Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov. Finally, on 13 October, U.S. State Secretary Condoleezza Rice visited the republic. In his conversation with her, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov emphasized that Tajikistan was and still is the U.S.’s partner in the fight against international terrorism, extremism, and drug trafficking. In turn, Condoleezza Rice said that Tajikistan had made great strides toward democracy. This statement clearly showed the White House’s support of Emomali Rakhmonov and, consequently, of political stability in the country.

What is more, with respect to Western countries, close political and military relations are maintained between Tajikistan and France. French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie was a frequent visitor to Tajikistan. At a meeting on 21 July with President Emomali Rakhmonov, she, in addition to other topics, discussed with him the question of deploying several Mirage bombers in the country on a temporary basis (in order to support the preparations for and holding of the general election in Afghanistan), as well as an additional contingent of 400 servicemen. And on 11 October, talks were held in Paris between Emomali Rakhmonov and French President Jacques Chirac, who stated his country’s intention to continue and expand its military cooperation with Tajikistan in the military sphere. Emomali Rakhmonov and the French defense minister also discussed problems of ensuring regional security.

Tajikistan’s relations with the North Atlantic Alliance also underwent a certain amount of development. On 16 December, Emomali Rakhmonov held talks with NATO Secretary General’s Special Representative for Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus Robert Simmons. The sides discussed questions relating to the Alliance’s activity in Central Asia, including in Tajikistan, with respect to strengthening ties under the Partnership for Peace program.

Summing up Tajikistan’s foreign policy activity in 2005, it should be stressed again that it was successful, that is, it fully correlated to enhancing Tajik statehood, creating conditions for the republic’s economic development, and improving its international image, which all in all promoted strengthening of the country’s security.