International Conference

«Conflicts in the Caucasus: History, the Present and Prospects for Resolution»

Baku (Azerbaijan) 22-23 October, 2012 and Tbilisi (Georgia) 25-26 October, 2012

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GENERAL OVERVIEW

Jamilia MAJIDOVA, Parviz MULLOJANOV

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Jamilia Majidova, Representative of Central Asia and the Caucasus in Tajikistan (Dushanbe, Tajikistan)

Parviz Mullojanov, Director of the Public Committee for Assisting the Democratic Processes in Tajikistan (Dushanbe, Tajikistan)

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The main political event of the year was the election to the republic’s Majlisi namoiandagon (the lower house of parliament) held on 27 February. Its results secured the dominance of the ruling People’s Democratic Party, which received 52 mandates out of 63. What is more, only two opposition parities, the Communist Party and the Islamic Revival Party, obtained seats (according to party lists) in the new parliament, while they have rather token representation in the country’s highest legislative body with four and two seats, respectively. Other important events of the year included transfer of protection of the Tajik-Afghan border to the jurisdiction of the State Border Protection Committee under the Tajikistan government. On 14 June, the last, 13th, frontier post of the Panj border contingent was transferred under Tajik control.

The main events in the republic’s international affairs developed in two areas: the Russian vector, which recently became a priority, and relations with Western countries.

With respect to Russia, we will note that the year was a time of active implementation of the bilateral agreements of 2004, which marked an increase in Russia’s influence in Tajikistan. In this respect, Tajikistan’s specific steps should be singled out aimed at reinforcing cooperation and integration within geopolitical unions and blocs in which Russia plays a leading role: the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), and the EurAsEC (Eurasian Economic Community).

These steps included the Tajik President’s visits to Russia and several other CIS countries, as well as Head of Russia’s RAO Unified Energy Systems Anatoli Chubais’ visit to Tajikistan in April to participate in the ceremony dedicated to revival of the construction of Sangtuda-1 Hydropower Plant, where he announced that the last (fourth) of its units would go into operation in 2009. Some time later, several mass media reported that a separate item has been introduced into the Russian Federation budget for 2006 for financing this facility. And in September, an official ceremony was held in the country with the participation of Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and Russian Minister of Industry and Power Engineering Viktor Khristenko to mark the revival of construction of the Rogun Hydropower Plant.

It should also be noted in particular that a meeting of the EurAsEC Interstate Council was held in Dushanbe on 27 September. At that time, an important agreement for Tajikistan was signed with Russia, according to which Tajik labor migrants may reside in the Russian Federation by virtue of their domestic passports.

As for the Western vector, the country’s leadership continued rather active consultations and contacts with the U.S. and European Union countries. For example, on 25 July, U.S. Defense Minister Donald Rumsfeld visited Tajikistan; and in August, General John Abizaid, Commander of the U.S. Central Command, paid a visit. And at the beginning of October, an official Tajik delegation visited France, where a meeting was held between the presidents of these two countries.

But the greatest response was aroused by U.S. State Secretary Condoleezza Rice’s visit to Tajikistan on 13 October as part of her tour of the Central Asian countries. It stood to reason that the domestic mass media called her visit to Tajikistan the “visit of the year.”

The official reports gave rather brief and general descriptions of the purpose of Condoleezza Rice’s visit to the region, as well as of the nature and content of her meetings with the leaders of the Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan). But according to the information of independent mass media, she discussed the possibilities of creating a new regional organization or a “new economic bloc” with the presidents of these countries, which would be oriented toward the West and could be a counterbalance to the CSTO and SCO in particular.¹ It is precisely within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that not only Russia’s, but also Beijing’s influence in the region has significantly grown during the past year, which cannot help but concern Washington, since the Central Asian countries have vast potential. They have their own history, cultural and, most important in the current context, trade ties with Europe and Asia. As Condoleezza Rice stated during her tour, the United States will render economic assistance in order to lower trade barriers and promote trade and economic relations between the region’s countries.

In religious life, one of the main events of the year was a pilgrimage (hajj), within the framework of which 4,000 Tajik Muslims went to Mecca. “Hajj-2005” was distinguished by the fact that after many years of chaotically organized pilgrimages, the Committee for Religious Affairs under the Tajik government was responsible for its organization for the first time since the republic gained its independence. After the hajj, debates flared up in society between the supporters and opponents of state control over the organization of pilgrimages.

The trials on the cases of Islamic radicals associated with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), most of whom were arrested in the Sogd Region in the north of Tajikistan, aroused a wide response in society. For example, during the first half of the year, a scandalous trial was held on seven members of an underground group called Baiat. But the biggest news was the exposure of a network of activists of the Islamic Movement of Turkestan (IMT) in the north of the republic, which had at least 200 activists.

Another important event in the religious sphere was the discussion between the religious and secular parts of society aroused by the significant spiritual and ideological differences which still exist between them. These included the following: establishing equal rights for women to attend mosques, streamlining several national-religious rituals, correlating national and religious self-consciousness, defining the place and role of Islam in the historical and present-day life of the Tajiks, and so on. A particularly serious dispute unfolded around the government’s decisions on prohibiting women from wearing hijabs in learning establishments and on introducing restrictions on pupils of general education schools wishing to visit mosques.

In the economy, two main rather contradictory trends were observed. On the one hand, the macroeconomic indices noted during the past few years continued to improve. For example, the budget revenue was endorsed at 430 million dollars, which is almost twice as high as the budget for 2004, and the foreign debt significantly shrank. What is more, on 21 December, the International Monetary Fund adopted a decision to write off part of Tajikistan’s debt (around 99 million dollars). On the other hand, economic growth rates slowed down compared with 2004 from 10% to 6%. But most important, stagnation continued in agriculture, the country’s main economic sector, where most of the able-bodied population is employed. Whereas in 2004-2005, the world price of cotton (one of the largest sources of hard currency revenue into the country) dropped by 40-45%, its export in 2005 amounted to 59% of the 2004 level, and the debts of local farmers to futures companies topped $220 million.

As a result, essentially all of the main economic events occurred in the industrial sector, mostly in power engineering and aluminum production (on the basis of bilateral agreements on large investments by Russian business—the RusAl Company and Russia’s RAO Unified Energy Systems). These events also include, in particular, Anatoli Chubais’ visit mentioned above and the opening of the RusAl Company’s representative office in the republic.

In conclusion, we can already predict that the presidential election scheduled for November will be the most prominent event of 2006. Its results will determine the specifics of the country’s further development.

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¹ P. Bykov, “Tsentral’naia Azia: konets avtoritarnoi ‘stabil’nosti,’” Part 1, APN-Kazakhstan. Available at [http://centrasia.org/newsA.php4?st=1131089220].

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