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International Conference
«Conflicts in the Caucasus: History, the Present and Prospects for Resolution»
Baku (Azerbaijan) 22-23 October, 2012 and Tbilisi (Georgia) 25-26 October, 2012
GENERAL OVERVIEW
Viktor KORGUN
Viktor Korgun, D.Sc. (Hist.), head of the Afghanistan Sector, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russian Federation)
Hamid Karzai’s government and the international community supporting it spent all of last year in an untiring attempt to deal with all the problems that have accumulated during the prolonged transition from the civil war, which ended in 2001, to peace and revival on a new and democratic basis. And the main event of the year was the parliamentary election held on 18 September. It concluded yet another stage in Afghanistan’s political history defined by the Bonn agreements of December 2001, within the framework of which the process of building a new state and creating conditions for further democratization of society’s sociopolitical life unfolded. The formation of new legislative state administrative structures (the parliament and provincial councils) gave ultimate legitimacy to the entire mechanism of the ruling regime and legislatively enforced the system of central and local power bodies that has currently developed. What is more, the appearance of the parliament and councils opens up opportunities, although still limited, for involving various political and social forces, and later the broad masses, in big politics, and for their direct participation in the development of society.
Other important events of the past year were also related in part to the election. These primarily involved problems of security, the main threat to which is posed by three factors: the armed struggle waged by the Taliban and al-Qa‘eda militants against Hamid Karzai’s government and the international coalition troops; the sovereignty and tyranny of the warlords; and the production and smuggling of drugs.
As a result of the combat operations by the international antiterrorist coalition and the National Afghan Army, the Taliban and foreign forces acting on their side have been significantly weakened. They can no longer have a radical effect on the situation and political processes in the country and, confined to the regions bordering on Pakistan, are unable to organize and carry out large-scale military operations. All the same, the extremists still have great military, financial, ideological-propagandistic, and psychological potential. What is more, their actions have acquired new forms and dimensions. The main goal of the opponents to Hamid Karzai’s regime last year was to undermine the parliamentary election, and the main targets were the employees of international organizations primarily involved in running the election, as well as the police and clergy cooperating with the authorities. By the fall, the extremists had developed a tactic that was new to Afghanistan—suicide bombers, most of whom were foreign mercenaries. During the second half of the year, more than 30 people died at their hands, including seven parliamentary deputy candidates and eight priests. During the year, more than a total of 1,400 people were killed by terrorists, including 46 U.S. servicemen.
The opposition between the central government and the uncontrollable, semi-autonomous, different-caliber leaders, both local and regional, who govern most of the country is still arousing serious concern. Possessing full power in the areas they control, they only pay lip service to Kabul. Moreover, many of them occupy gubernatorial posts in the provinces, although the zone of their actual control frequently spreads far beyond the bounds of the corresponding administrative regions. Taking advantage of the government’s weakness, they abuse power scotfree, administer tyranny, violate human rights, mercilessly repress the discontented moods of the local population, and are closely tied with drug trafficking, which provides them with the funds for their armed contingents’ upkeep. Although 65,000 people laid down their arms during the campaign to disarm, demobilize, and rehabilitate private armed formations financed by Japan in 2005, the influential warlords have held onto a large part of their contingents and weapons. And even though, in the past two years, the head of state was able to neutralize or even oust the most authoritative and odious of them from big politics, such as Defense Minister Marshal Fakhim, leader of the Afghan Uzbeks General Dustom, and Herat Governor Ismail-khan, most of the warlords have retained their influence in the provinces.
The drug problem presents just as great a threat to the country’s security. It is related not only to drug crimes, subversion of the national economy, corruption of the state system, and the threat posed to neighboring states, but also to the fact that the local drug barons are financing criminal groups, the Taliban and al-Qa‘eda. In 2004, Afghanistan proved to be the largest manufacturer of heroin, producing 87% of the world volume, as well as its largest supplier to the world market. The government has drawn up a set of measures in cooperation with donor countries to wipe out drug manufacture, ranging from the destruction of opium plantations to the creation of alternative farms for growing traditional crops. But these efforts have not yet yielded the desirable results. Admittedly, thanks to the powerful international financial support rendered by the drug control campaign, the U.S. allotting 780 million dollars for this purpose last year alone, poppy-growing fields were reduced by 21%. But due to favorable weather conditions, the harvest only decreased by 2.5% to 4,100 tons, while in 2004 it was 4,200 tons.
Even with significant foreign financial assistance, 8.2 billion dollars for 2004-2009, the restoration of Afghanistan’s economy and social sphere is an extremely slow process. The greatest achievements have been reached in nation-building: after several years of obscurantism due to the Taliban rule, the country had to begin from scratch. In January 2004, a new liberal constitution was adopted which declared the country’s main task to be building a democratic society. In October of the same year, the country elected its president at a universal, secret, and equal election. This was Hamid Karzai, who gathered 54% of the votes in the first round. Finally, as already noted, in September 2005, a parliamentary election was held, the first in 36 years, which completed the formation of legitimate state administration structures.
A new political system is forming, within the framework of which basic civilian rights and freedoms are being realized: personal immunity, inviolability of private property, freedom of speech and the press, equal rights for men and women, and so on. Today, approximately 300 independent periodicals are published in the country, private radio and television stations operate along with the state channels, and more than 100 political and public organizations have been created and are functioning, many of them represented in the parliament.
More modest results have been achieved in the economy, the main role in the restoration of which is played by donor countries. So far improvements can only be seen in infrastructure: roads, power stations, and irrigation systems are being restored and new ones built. In the future, Afghanistan could become a transit state, a junction between Europe and India with access to Southeast Asia, as well as providing a route from Central Asia to South Asia. In the next few years, there are plans to build cross-border railroads which will link the countries of the Persian Gulf and Pakistan with Central Asia through Afghanistan. And finally, a project for building a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan and possibly on to India is being reanimated. The transit of Turkmen gas will become a very tangible source of hard currency revenue into the Afghan budget.
But for the moment all of this only exists in the form of promising plans and projects. Against the background of these extremely modest achievements, the situation in other spheres of the economy and social life remains depressing. There is still the problem of refugees who left the country during the Soviet occupation of 1979-1989, during the civil war in 1989-1996, and during the Taliban’s rule in 1996-2001. After the downfall of the Taliban regime, 3.8 million refugees returned to the country, mainly from Iran and Pakistan, but there are still about another 2 million living abroad. Most of those who have returned cannot find housing or jobs, the size of the population in large cities has burgeoned and people are living on the brink of poverty. There is still the problem of temporary migrants who fled from rural areas to the large cities during the combat action and are swelling the ranks of the unemployed there.
Economic backwardness is also why other social problems cannot be resolved. The country is still one of the poorest in the world. According to the U.N. human development index, it holds 173rd place out of a total of 178. Only a few Sub-Saharan African countries are worse off. The average longevity of Afghanis is 44.5 years, that is, 20 years less than in neighboring countries. The child and maternal fatality rate is the highest in the world, and 53% of the population live below the poverty line. Poverty in Afghanistan is a multifaceted problem which consists of unequal access to means of production and social services, a low level of education, health, and nutrition, weak social security systems, housing problems, and inequality between the sexes. The country is on the brink of a public health crisis, which is graphically shown by medical statistics. Only 40% of children are vaccinated against the main diseases, only 25% of the population have access to clean drinking water and to normal sanitation, there is one doctor to every 6,000 patients, one nurse to every 2,500 people, and 20% of children die before they reach the age of five.
As for the country’s foreign policy, last year it noticeably strengthened. The priorities in this sphere are defined primarily by the amount of assistance rendered. The most important player on the Afghani field is still the U.S., which heads the antiterrorist coalition and also renders extensive military and economic assistance to Afghanistan’s restoration. Washington largely shapes official Kabul’s foreign policy. The U.S. has long-term political, economic, and geostrategic interests in this country, and bilateral relations are underpinned by the Agreement on Strategic Cooperation signed in May 2005 in the U.S. capital.
Afghanistan is maintaining close ties with neighboring states too, primarily with Iran, Pakistan, and India. Located in the center of the Central and South Asian subregion, they use Afghanistan as a transit route to the Central Asian markets. In so doing, each of the countries in this region, by rendering significant economic assistance, is striving to gain a dominating position in Afghanistan, often acting on the brink of interference in its internal affairs. This primarily applies to Pakistan, which is engaged in fierce rivalry with India for influence over official Kabul. In addition, last year, Afghanistan stepped up its foreign policy activity within the framework of regional and international organizations. For example, in November 2005, a conference was held in Kabul of the member states of the Economic Cooperation Organization, to which Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan belong. The participants in this meeting discussed increasing economic aid to Afghanistan. In the same month, Afghanistan joined the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the members of which are India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. In 2006, Afghanistan has a real chance of joining the World Trade Organization (WTO), as well as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in which it became an observer in 2005. Last November, the SCO and official Kabul established a Contact Group. Relations with the European Union are dynamically developing, which is rendering immense economic aid to the country. Last November, official Kabul signed an Agreement on Partnership with the EU.
In this way, in 2005, Afghanistan declared itself an important entity of international relations and regional geopolitics. The country’s foreign policy activity and stances will have a significant impact both on the alignment and balance of power in the region and on the overall political and economic development of its states.
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